Over the next decade, the economies and populations of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to be among the fastest growing in the world. In the face of such significant expansion, many countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, are in danger of increasing their share of emissions. There is an urgent need to develop new approaches and support policymakers in these countries if they are to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, which requires making fundamental changes to their transport policies.
The team at the Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT) are developing a diagnostic toolkit as part of the HVT programme to evaluate countries’ capacity to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Aimed specifically at Africa and South Asia, the Transport Decarbonisation Index (TDI) analyses existing transport policies and encourages tailored policy approaches in response.
We spoke to SLoCaT’s Director of Policy Outreach and Strategic Communications, Alice Yiu, about why the TDI matters, and the challenges involved in implementing it in Africa and South Asia.
What is the TDI? And why is it important?
What we know is that climate strategies set by countries are still not ambitious enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs. What we’ve found is that without more ambitious policies towards structural and systemic transformation, transport emissions could grow as much as 50% by 2050. To make it worse, there is also a lack of tools to assess this gap in capacity and policies for low- and middle-income countries specifically on surface transport decarbonisation.
And this is where the Transport Decarbonisation Index (TDI) project comes in. This diagnostic toolkit aims to assist LMICs in Africa and South Asia in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in surface transport. The TDI assesses a country’s preparedness to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and it enables comparisons with other nations and tracks long-term progress.
It identifies the potential strengths and weaknesses of transport policies in different countries and encourages novel policy approaches to respond to these needs. By giving a clearer and data-driven picture on where we are, the TDI can help policymakers set more ambitious targets and commit to climate actions in transport that are tailored to their needs. Now is the window of opportunity – as countries are now preparing to submit the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement by 2025.
In a nutshell – it’s a practical tool. It’s responsive to the needs of countries. It’s exactly what policymakers need right now to drive climate action in transport.
Why is it being developed specifically for low and middle-income countries?
Low- and middle-income countries are still very “car-centric”, private vehicles are still dominating the roads and their numbers are expected to grow rapidly due to economic and population growth. Those with vested interests in this car-centric system have continued to profit from this at the expense of people and the environment. At the same time, many decision makers remain under-informed about the benefits of developing transport systems sustainably.
But it’s exactly because of this that many cities in LMICs have come to realise that they need to move away from this polluting, congested and less healthy model of development. Policymakers now have stronger intentions to backtrack and take bold actions for sustainable, low carbon transport. What they need is the right tool to better understand which policy measures are most effective for their specific contexts, considering their development status and transport system characteristics. We believe that the TDI is the enabling tool for LMICs where impactful change can happen.
You plan to pilot your ideas in different countries? Which are these and how did you choose them?
The first piloting phase focuses on three countries in sub-Saharan Africa and three in South Asia: India, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Africa, and Sri Lanka. We selected countries where we believe there is a good level of transport data, allowing us to test as many indicators as possible. The index development is an iterative process, requiring several rounds of adjustments. Data availability and approaches to overcoming data gaps are some of the key issues we explore during this piloting phase.
How do countries use the index? Is there a grading system?
We are developing a spreadsheet toolkit to enable anyone to assess a country’s transport system. This diagnostic toolkit aims to indicate the status and readiness of a country for transport decarbonisation through the assessment. Users can input data and receive scores for the overall index, its subdimensions, and indicators. The TDI will feature a scoring system that benchmarks a country’s performance against envisioned transport decarbonisation targets.
What’s the next step for countries which don’t score highly on the TDI? Will it look bad for them?
The TDI does not shame or blame any countries. It is a tool available to policymakers and practitioners to support decision-making and the assessment of transport decarbonisation. By identifying weaknesses and areas of poor performance, the TDI helps in designing better policies. Countries should not be afraid of using the TDI. They should see it as an opportunity to improve and advance their transport systems towards decarbonisation.
What are the pitfalls/challenges you face with rolling out the TDI?
The TDI faces several challenges, some related to the topic itself and others to the data needs. Transport is a complex sector embedded in various regional and local contexts, making it challenging to develop a tool that can be universally applied. To address this challenge, we allow users to adjust the weighting system, a key function for calculating scores. Users can modify the weights to reflect their national priorities and what they consider most important.
Another major challenge of the TDI is the data gaps that many low- and middle-income countries face. Even when data exists, it might be based on different methodologies. We are exploring ways to address these data gaps by providing an overview of data sources and guiding users towards proxy data.
These challenges are closely interconnected: by examining transport, we aim to analyse a complete system, ideally through as many aspects as possible. However, there are many unknowns. The TDI seeks to find the most suitable balance between casting a wide net and identifying the lowest common denominator.
How would you hope to see the TDI being used in the future?
We hope that the TDI will become the go-to toolkit for practitioners and decision-makers working on transport decarbonisation. The TDI will help them make informed and balanced decisions, and its comprehensive nature will enable countries to identify potential improvements across all transport modes.