tb -- tt, PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THIRD WVORLD CITIES. G. D. Jacobs, PhD., BSc., MIHE., P. R. Fouracre, BSC., M1HE and D. A. C. Maunder, MCIT. INTRODUCTION THE forecasting of urban popu- lation growth rates is fraught Twith difficulties, particularly in the Third World where high birth rates, accelerating urban migration and rising life expectations com- pound the problem. Nevertheless, experts`. are fairly consistent in their forecasts that by the year 2000 the number of people living in urban After taking a science degree at Brunei University Dr. Jacobs joined the TRIRL In 1961 and spent seven years working on a range of traffic and safety problems Including the design of pedestrian facilities and work on drink-drive legislation. He joined the Over- seas Unit, TRRL in 1968 and as a Principal Scientific Officer is now head of the Unit's Traffic and Safety Group. In 1976 he was awarded a PhD from Surrey Uni- versity for work on road accidents In developing countries. He has worked In over 20 developing countries and published some 40 reports and Papers, most dealing with Third World transport. Mr Fouracre graduated from Southampton University In 1968 with a degree In economics. Before joining the TRRL In 1973 he worked for the systems engineers and consultants EASAMS on a number of projects, Including a national transport study for Algeria. As a Senior Scientific Officer with the Over- seas Unit, TRIRL, he has been mainly engaged on the develop- ment of a research programme on urban transport In the Third World. Between 1978-80 he led an Anglo-Indian .co-operative research team In New Delhi, studying the ploblems of public transport in Indian cities. Mr Maunder studied economics at Leicester University and joined the Overseas Unit, TRIRL in 1974. He spent five years working on areas with populations of more than 100,000 (now generally signified internationally by the word "city") will double from some 1200 million to 2400 million. Over two thirds of this expected increase is likely to take place in those cities of the Third World that even today have great difficulty in feeding, housing and transporting the millions who already live there. By the end of the century, if even the most conserva- MlIF tli LJ _Iarflfl Mr. D. A. C. Maunder tive of the predictions comes true, half the world's city dwellers, around 1,200 million or, one in five of the world's entire population, will be liv- ing in cities of over 2.5 million popu- lation. Furthermore, of the 52 cities of the world with populations over five million, at least 40 are likely to be in the Third World. As Davis' states, "this is not so much 'urbanisation' as 'metropolitanisation on a gigantic scale". rural transport 'planning prblemns before ~transferring his iterests, .to 'the tranprit poleso Third 'World c~ities Asammer of the urban taspr rerh~ team In India h eeoe specilfic Interest inteacesad mobility problemso h uan poor. He is currently.dvlpn this research topic,whcIsao the themeofhspsgaut studies 'beingudrae at Leicester Univrsty M Muder is a membero h hree Institute oifTasot This Paper prsnts a rview of "Public transport' -~operatio'ns in.l: cities of the Tthird Wold It: shown, that: although this "I s. a growth indudtryi mostof these,, ,cities, the!,supply of ovntoa public transport is Inadequate and para-transit systems heaven developed to fill t he void. Oprt ing costs and, revene ar examined and 'althouhms unidertakings are shown o ob profitable, it Is explaineta lt tle supportI proviebyitr central or local ,governmen. h development of p ora-rn systems Isreviewed andthroe -that these systems,, play anv h problems .they 'creatar examined. The transpr prb lemns of low inco'me commnitie are also considered, includingth provision of transpott h urban poor and expniueo transport. THE HIGHWAY ENGINEER MRH18MARCH 1982 In many cities in developing coun- tries the rapid rise in population, increased costs of fuel and limited financial resources have produced the most severe transport problems. For example, average bus speeds in Bangkok are almost half those in London; the average load factor on buses in Indian cities is over three times greater than cities in the UK. In the near future, an improved public transport system is likely to be the only solution for reducing traffic con- gestion and also the cost of travel in most Third World Cities --since it is unlikely that the communities con- cerned can (or even should) afford to build the road network needed to accommodate unrestrained travel by private car"(3). Estimates made by the authors suggest that there are, in cities of the Third World with over 100,000 population, some half mil- lion buses travelling 100 million bus kilometres per day and carrying 440 million passengers. The cost of operating these vehicles is of the order of £1 1,000 million per annum or £30, million per day. According to World Bank and IRF statistics this sum of £1 1,000 million was approxi- mately twice the amount spent in the entire Third World on road construc- tion, maintenance and rehabilitation in 1978.Public transport in cities of the developing world comprises more than just the traditional bus and train of developed cities. Thus shared taxis, motorcycle, scooter, cycle and, in some cities hand rickshaws all play an important role in urban per- sonal mobility. Such forms of trans- port are now generally known as "para-transit" systems or inter- mediate public transport (IPT). This article makes a broad review of the demand for and supply of both con- ventional and para-transit forms of public transport in cities of the Third World and compares and contrasts the situation in these cities with con- ditions in Western Europe and North America. It also outlines some of the special problems faced by public transport operators in developing countries and the economic climate under which they operate. CONVENTIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT Unlike the situation in the UK, pub- lic transport is a growth industry in most developing countries and although car ownership has increased in developing countries over the last 30 years, it is still at a relatively low level and there is a great reliance on public transport. Percentage changes in the number of buses and passengers over this period 1964-75 for some 12 cities, most of which would be regarded as being in the "developing world", are given in Table 1. In almost all the Third World cities there were considerable increases in the number of buses in use and passengers carried. The number of passenger trips made on public transport increased at a faster rate than the population growth rates in all cities except Calcutta. In compari- son in the UK there was an approxi- mate three per cent reduction in the number of passenger trips per annum.Apart from Blantyre, Malawi, buses were being used more inten- sively in 1975 than in 1964. In Surabaya, Indonesia, for example, there was an increase of almost eight per cent per annum in the average number of passengers per bus. In other cities, increases of four per cent were common. In the UK there were again consistent decreases for all three transport organisations for which data were available. The number of trips made per head of population (i.e. the trip rate) increased in all Third World cities except Calcutta. It might well be that in a number of developing countries a modest increase in real incomes coupled (in some cities) with improved services has led to increased public transport usage, whereas it has been shown"' that in the cities of Europe a more substan- tial increase in real incomes has led to increased car ownership which, together with a decrease in service levels, has led to a decrease in public transport usage. Data were obtained on trip rates i.e. the average number of passenger trips per person per annum from 42 cities in developing countries and 97 cities in Europe and North America. Simple regression analysis was used to relate the trip rates to the gross TABLE 1 Average annual percentage changes over the period 1964-75 in the number of buses and passengers in some cities in developing countries and the UK Passenger Average Trips per Average trips per daily person Popula- number annum passengers per annum City tion of buses on road per bus per bus Ahmedabad (India) +5.5 +2.1 +7.3 +0.4 +1.1 Barbados (Island) +2.0 +1.6 +5.0 +2.7 +2.4 Blantyre +9.7 +12.3 +10.6 -0.7 +0.5 Bombay +5.5 +4.1 +7.0 +2.0 +0.9 Calcutta +18.4 +1.5 +5.0 +3.0 -4.4 Delhi +4.8 +13.1 +22.7 +4.0 +11.6 Istanbul +6.1 NA +8.0 NA +1.3 Mauritius* (island) -3.4 +9.8 +14.8 +3.4 +21.0 Mombasa +7.3 +9.6 +15.4 +2.8 +4.5 Nairobi +8.1 +9.0 +16.6 +3.8 +4.5 Nicosia +6.4 -0.4 +9.3 +10.4 +1.7 Surabaya** +3.0 +6.7 +16.7 +7.7 +11.2 UK London Transport Executive -1.8 -2.9 -1.3 Passenger transport Executive -0.7 -2.7 -2.2 Municipal Operators +0.4 -2.5 -2.7 *1975 `* 1970-76 NA: not available MARCH 1982 ~~~~~THE JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAY ENGINEERS MARCH 1982 PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THIRD WORLD CITIES national product (GNP) per capita of the various countries. Since the GNP values relate to the countries as a whole and not to the specific cities this must be regarded as an approxi- mnation of the real relationships that may exist. Nevertheless the relation- ships derived between trip rates in the cities and the GNP/capita for the countries as a whole were statisti- cally significant at the five per cent level. The slope of the regression line in Third World cities was found to be positive, the trip rate increasing rapidly with the increasing GNP, whereas in the European and North American cities the slope was nega- tive, the trip rate decreasing slightly with increasing GNP. This implies (although this may perhaps be an over-simplication) that as people become more affluent in the Third World they may make more bus journeys each year, whereas in the developed world they buy more cars and consequently make fewer bus trips. Although trip rates have increased considerably over the last 10 years in Third World cities the actual number of journeys made per per- son per annum is still relatively low. White estimates for example that the annual number of trips per person by buses in Pune and Bombay, India is about 150 rising to about 250 in Kuala Lumpur (on buses and mini buses) and 300 in Singapore. British cities of over one million population have about 150-250 bus trips per person per annum. Thus the Indian bus figures do not exceed those in Britain despite far lower car owner- ship. It may well be that an inade- quate fleet size and route network is constraining the total number of pas- senger trips and there may be a TABLE 2 Number of buses and route kilometres per 100,000 population in developed and developing cities Country/Region Buses/100,O00 population Asia ................................. 48 Africa ................................ 30 India.................................30Other (developing) ..................... 63 UK .................................. 90 Route Km/100,000 population Developed Cay, of 97 cities) .............. 100 Developing (av. of 42 cities) ............. 54 considerable suppressed demand for public transport in these Third World cities. In order to obtain an estimate of the level of service pro- vided in the two groups of cities, the average values of parameters that describe, in part, the level of public transport service were calculated. These are given in Table 2. It can be seen from Table 2 that there are, on average, about 40 per cent fewer buses per head of popula- tion in cities of the Third World even though the level of car ownership is very much lower than in the indus- trialised countries. Similarly, the number of route kilometres per head of population is about half that in Europe and North America. It should, of course, be remembered that, in many Third World cities, para-transit -systems provide additional transport services. This is discussed later. As White"' states, the overcrowd- ing observed on buses in Third World cities (Figure 1) is a result of there being fewer buses relative to popula- tion. This also has the effect of Figure 1. An overcrowded bus in Dehli, India. spreading the peak and buses travel with high load factors throughout the day.As seen earlier, the demand for public transport has declined stead- ily in the UK over the past decade. This in turn has led to general agree- ment that public transport services should be regarded, in part, as pro- viding an essential service for those sections of the community unable to afford private transport and, as such, should receive a measure of financial support. Recent studies 4'161 of subsidy levels in cities in the developed countries show that they range f rom as low as 1 1 per cent of total operat- ing cost to as high as 70 per cent. Results suggest there is considerable evidence that increases in subsidy permit a reduction in fare levels and improvement in service thereby attracting more patronage. In con- trast, it might be expected that with the large and increasing demand for publ'ic transport in Third World cities, bus companies should have no diffi- culty in being economically viable enterprises. The small sample show in Table 3 suggests that this is not the case.In over half the cities for which data were available, operating costs per bus kilometre exceeded reven- ues. In many of these countries, India being a particularly good example, there has been a policy of maintain- ing low fare levels irrespective of the cost of providing the service. Requests for fare increases are sub- ject to lengthy enquiries and small increases (if granted at all) are often out of date by the time they are implemnented.As opposed to the provision of subsidies for large transport under- takings in Third World cities, there is a school of thought --that challenges the conventional wisdom that large buses in large organisations with subsidies to produce optimum fre- quenci~es are the best arrangement THE HIGHWAY ENGINEER MARCH 1982 1----- v

TABLE 3 Costs and revenues in various cities Cost per bus Revenue per bus --Profit- per City Km (pence) km (pence) bus. Km (pence) Ahmedabacdl979 16 15 -1 Bandung 1979 15 12 -3 Bangkok 1980 (est) 20 14 -6 Bombay 1979 23 21 -2 Delhi 1979 19 11 -8 Jakarta 1979 17 13 -4 Kolhapur 1979 15 16 +1 Madras 1979 15 16 +1 Nicosia 1980 15 16 +1 Pune 1979 16 14 -2 Averagevalues of 5 municipal operators 64 62 -2 in UK 1980 for urban road passenger transport. An examination of the structure of It is shown that in theory small buses operating costs in cities in developed are often appropriate, giving the best and developing countries reveals frequencies and speeds and waiting some interesting differences. It can times. Furthermore, the best institu- be seen from Table 4 that in the UK tional organisation is not the large the major cost component, about firm or municipal authority but the two-thirds the total, is that of staff, small firm, often the owner/driver, with maintenance and spares mak- There is no case, for any substantial ing up most of the remainder. subsidy for appropriately organised Operating costs in the Third World urban bus transport. "" cities are clearly different, with staff In the authors' opinions, levels of costs being about one-third the total, service as well as economic effi- but with fuel and depreciation/inter- ciency need to be examined with est costs being much greater than in care, before it can be stated conclu- the UK. In Bangkok where the trans- sively that the private sector with port authority have to pay the full small companies and small buses is commercial rate for fuel, the cost of to be preferred. This is an area where fuel actually exceeds staff costs and further research is needed. represents a remarkable 38 per cent TABLE 4 Operating costs for public transport operators (percentages) 0 C C~~~~~~~~~~~C0, ~ ~ ~~~! E 0 0~0 U Staff 60 40. 39 44 60 35 38 35 Fuel 4 16 16 6 4 13 12 38 Tyres'S pa res 1 14 5 3 24 28 6 3 Maintenance 23 X 19 27 X 2 1 20 18 Deprec-iation 6 19 6 12 5 9 9 5 InterestTaxes Licences neg 5 - 4- - - - Other 6 6 15xx 4 7 4 15xx 1 *Total 100 100 100o 100 J100 1 00 j100 10 x Bus companies allocate maintenance costs mainly as cost of tyres and spare partsxx Depot and traffic operating costs and administration of total operating costs. The number of staff employed per bus in the 42 cities of developing countries was, on average, over twice as high as in cities in developed countries. Thus, even with one-man operation on many buses in the UK, staff costs are high: in comparison, in many Third World cities there are often three persons operating each bus, but nevertheless staff costs would seem to be relatively low. Perhaps the most interesting dif- ference in operating costs between cities in the UK and in the selected cities in the developing countries is the proportion of total costs allo- cated to depreciation and interest. In many Third World countries the operational life of a bus is often extremely short, sometimes as low as six years; consequently vehicles have (in theory) to be replaced at very short intervals of time and depreciation costs are correspond- ingly high. In addition, many public transport operators in developing countries receive virtually no gov- ernment support at all. In order to continue supplying public transport services, loans have to be acquired (sometimes from central govern- ment itself, as in Delhi, or from state governments, as in Calcutta). The interest paid on these loans is often a considerable proportion of total operating costs for these bus com- panies. Financial costs of operation are further complicated in India by the imposition of direct and indirect taxes. Such taxes consist' of pas- senger taxes (levied on the number of passengers carried), vehicle taxes and income taxes. This means that the more successful and efficient the transport organisation, the greater the taxes imposed by government. To a visitor from Western Europe or North America, bus fares might appear to be low in many cities in developing countries. Thus, in Delhi passengers are able to travel up to 16km for the equivalent of a 2p fare. In the UK a similar journey could cost over 40 pence with a graduated fare system and of the order of 25 pence with a flat-fare system. From the results of detailed home- interview surveys of low and middle income communities in a number of Third World cities it has been poss ible to estimate the proportion of household income spent on trati!~ port `" Results are given in Figure. 2. It can be seen from the three cities studied that over the range £lO-£5O income per month there is a marked decrease in the proportion spent on transport with increasing monthly income. Low income families are obliged therefore to spend propor- MARCH 1982 ~~~~~THE JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAY ENGINEERS MARCH 1982 PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THIRD WORLD CITIES Z14 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~to sub-divide vehicles into two cate gories which are broadly iden- 20- ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~tified by role 11111121). These are: 20 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(a) the bus-like service in which vehi- cles are used on relatively fixed routes on which there are recognised 16 stopping points and each user pays KingstonJamaicaan individual fare which is pre- Kingston Jamaicadetermined for any given journey. 12- (b) the taxi-like service in which the user(s) hire the vehicle (the hire Kala Lumpur charge being either metered or bar- 8 - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~gained) and have control over its 8~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~el mdl noe destination, and for which individu- Dehl (mddleincme) als do not pay separate fares (since Delhi (low income) the vehicle is hired). 4- The distinction between role types is important because vehicle utilisa- tion, unit operating costs and user 01 I I I11 1 costs are likely to be significantly 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 dlifferent. In some instances role Houshol inome(pondsstelin pe moth)switching may occur amongst Househ ld in ome (p unds terlin per onth)vehicles. For exam ple, in Calcutta, ure 2. Expenditure on transport as a proportion of household income, saloon cars are used to provide a classic taxi service for much of the lately more on transport in order households (low income earners day, but may be used as shared taxis make essential journeys. The with several children living in rented (i.e. a type of bus service, as defined ,portions spent on transport in accommodation, for example) were above) during peak periods. In some hi and Kuala Lumpur were similar obliged to spend almost all of their Indian cities tongas (horse-drawn ,r the range £50-f160 per month disposable income on transport. carts) are used in the taxi-like role, 1 ranged from 8 to 11 per cent Again, in contrast, Tulpule's study while in other cities they are used in! lending on income level. The suggests that non-car-owning the bus-like role and yet in others portions in Kingston were sig- households in Great Britain in 1970 there may be continual role switch- cantly greater and ranged bet- spent of the order of 8 per cent of ing. Even the two seat rickshaw has en 1 5 and 20 per cent. In Delhi the their disposable income on trans- been observed to be used in a bus- rest income groups spend up to port. With such large proportions of like role in some cities of India (e.g. per cent of their income on trans- the household budget being spent Jaipur). t, even though the large majority on bus travel it is hardly surprising The IPT vehicles undertaking an trips are to and from work or that in many Third World cities, bus essentially taxi-like role, which ;sible school with very few social fares are kept at an artificially low include all forms of rickshaw and 1 leisure trips being made. level. Whilst this benefits the low horse-drawn cart, seem to be gener- contrast, a study by Tuipuleili of income groups, it does mean that ally confined to south-east Asian isehold expenditure in Great Bri- middle-income groups are travelling cities. (Rickshaws are not, to the iin 1970 indicated that non-car- at an artificially low rate. This policy authors' knowledge, found west of iing households in this country of maintaining cheap fares for all Pakistan). The IPT vehicles undertak- nt between three and four per users of public transport has a detri- ing an essential bus-like role are of income on transport. Also the mental effect on the service provided found in cities throughout Africa, )artment of Employment Family by bus operators. A bus company South and Central America, South- endliture Survey 197601 stated which is improverished by virtue of a east Asia and Oceania. some indica- households with (low) incomes low fare structure and at the same tions of their numbers for a selection C15-£20 per week spent 3.4 per time is not in receipt of positive of cities are given in Table 5. tof total expenditure on transort. government support will always be Little is known about trends in the ould appear therefore that people short of investment capital, as a con- numbers of vehicles in use, though 'hird World cities have to spend sequence of which the service will some analysis has been made of the iificantly more, proportionately, inevitably deteriorate. The decaying relationship between supply levels transport than those from low- or stagnant service is further eroded and city development characteristics ime groups in Britain. as more expensive intermediate in south-east Asian cities. In India for the sake of argument, the (para-transit) forms proliferate, their there are some cities which are still tof housing, food and fuel are owners taking the opportunity to fill very dependent on the more tradi- arded as "essential" items of the gaps in transport supply. tional forms of public transport like enditure, the sum remaining can the cycle rickshaw. Other cities have regarded as the "disposable" INEMDAEPBC a broad mix of IPT and conventional )me of the household. The prop- ITERMEDIATE PUBLI public transport, while some cities on of disposable income spent on TRNPT(PT are more dependent on conventional isport in the above three cities Any road-based form of public public transport with some IPT in a estimated to be between 18 and transport which is not obviously a supporting role. These patterns of )er cent in Delhi and Kuala Lum- conventional stage-carriage bus ser- public transport supply seem to be depending on income and in vice (operated with single or double- related to city prosperity, size and gston, the range was a remark- deck vehicles) or conventional taxi accessibility within the city. The 54 to 74 per cent. Interviews in service (operated with saloon cars) more prosperous, more populated city indicated in fact that some may be classified as IPT. It is useful and more dispersed cities tend to Fig tiortoproDeloveanCdeppron ifiweilow25 1 porof po5anCInhOLtainowi specenDepExpthatof I cenIt W sigroninccIfcosreg, e.x pbeincco rti.tranwa t 36 I pu r KiniablEthis THE HIGHWAY ENGINEER MRH18 m E 0 U ,p'0_r a100R0 0SmCR W- MARCH 1982 TABLE 5 Availability of IPT vehicles in selected cities Number per 1000 population IPT bus-services: tempos - Jaipur, India 0.3 matatus - Nairobi, Kenya 2.3 jeepneys - Manila, Phillipines 3.2 bemos - Surabaya, Indonesia 0.9 minibuses - Kingston, Jamaica 1.7 IPT taxi-services cycle-rickshaws - Kanpur, India 33 hand-ricksaws - Calcutta, India 3 auto-rickshaws - Jakarta, Indonesia 0.3 samlor - Chieng Mai, Thailand 20 have a high component of conven- tional public transport. Dispersion generates long passenger leads (journey length) and mass move- ments; hence there is a need for cheap transport which can move large numbers of travellers effi- ciently. Compact, less populous cities will generate small leads and there may be less dependence on public transport because walking and cycling are practicable alterna- tives. Furthermore, accessibility, or, more accurately, the ease of penetra- tion within the city may well deter- mine the type of vehicle best suited for operations there; the congested and tortuous streets, which are more characteristic of less prosperous and more compact cities, are more likely to be the preserves of cycle rick- shaws and horse tongas, which can easily be manoeuvered. Thus, evi- dence from India suggests a relation- ship between city development and structure and the development of public transport. Broadly similar pat- terns were noted in other south-east Asian cities 112~. It seems probable that the traditional modes of IPT which were developed in South-east Asian cities, and which still flourish in some of the less prosperous cities, were never developed in cities of Africa, South and Central America, and Oceania, because of the relative modernity (in the sense of having been established in very recent his- tory) of most of these cities. These cities are likely to be more dispersed and easily penetrable, both condi- tions which are more suited to the operations of buses, whether con- ventional or not. The importance of IPT is indicated by the modal split in public transport use in some selected cities, shown in Table 6. Output from individual vehicles in the IPT sector may not be high, but the importance of IPT is derived from the large numbers of vehicles in use. IPT vehicles are primarily in the ~ rivate sector; sometimes the driver ires the vehicle on a daily basis from the owner. Less common is for the driver to be an employee of the owner. Drivers tend to work long hours and there is less likelihood of fixed hours and shifted-working as is usually the case with the more institutionalised operations of con- ventional buses. Unit costs of operating IPT vehi- cles vary with the vehicle type and its role. Typically a minibus is more expensive per seat km to run than a large conventional bus; however, fare levels (per passenger kin) and load factors (passenger kms to seat kms) are often higher on the minibus, making it a profitable enter- prise to the private entrepreneur. Load factors can be higher because for a given demand level throughout the day it will always be easier to fill a small vehicle than a large one. Fare levels may be higher because the service provided is g eared to the more discerning travellers (i.e. those prepared to pay extra for speed and/ior comfort) or because the con- ventional fleet operators are more likely to be under pressure to main- tain artificially low fares (for which they may be receiving some form of subsidy).Taxi-like vehicles tend to have high unit operating costs in comparison with both conventional buses and mini buses. Utilisation and carrying capacity of these vehicles are low. Tariffs, per passenger kin, can be as much as five or ten times higher than those charged on a bus service for an equivalent journey length. In these circumstances demand for taxi-like services tends to be of a "non- regular" nature with, middle and high-income travellers making the most use of these vehicles. However, there is evidence from Indian cities that in those cities where conven- tional public transport is deficient, the traditional public transport types, though undertaking an essentially taxi-like service, are used on a regu- lar basis by middle-income groups. Even low-income groups make more use of these forms of public trans- port than their counter parts in cities where conventional public transport is more readily available. Apart from the pure transport characteristics of IPT, the develop- ment potential of these vehicles is often discussed in terms of such external factors as employment, con- gestion, safety and health. Energy efficiency is also an important factor nowadays.IPT creates employment on a large scale. In some cities it has been estimated that as many as 10 to 20 per cent of the population may be either directly employed or depen- dent on those employed in the indus- try. Earnings are not always good in the IPT sector, which is not well protected by labour legislation or unions. In particular, cycle rickshaw drivers are usually towards the bot- tom end of the social scale. Evidence from India on the operations of IPT suggests that the minibus forms of 1PT may not always be the most labour intensive means of public transport. Table 7 shows some esti- mates of input and output for the main IPT and conventional types. TABLE 6 Percentage modal split in use of main public transport types in selected cities Trips made by:- rickshaw* minibus conventional rail/tram Total city bus metro Calcutta, India 8 4 48 40 100 Delhi, India 17 neg 83 neg 100 Jakarta, Indonesia 20 - 80 - 100 Chieng Mai, Thailand 7 86 7 - 100 Manila, Phillipines - 64 36 - 100 Surabaya, Indonesia 54 39 7 - 100 Kanpur, India 88 5 7 - 100 Jaipur, India 72 10 18 - 100 Bangkok, Thailand 8 11 81 - 100 *Includes hand, cycle and auto rickshaws MARCH 1982 ~~~~~THE JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAY ENGINEERS MARCH 1982 S 9 PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THIRD WORLD CITIES TABLE 7 Estimates of public transport input and output levels for Indian cities Capital to labour ratio (Rs per man) Annual output to capital ratio (pass Ikms per Rs) Daily output to labour ratio (pass kms per man) Cycle rickshaw 500 12 20 Auto rickshaw 7,000 4 100 Taxi (saloon car) 25,000 2 150 Minibus (15-seat) 40,000 15 2,000 Minibus (25-seat 50,000 10 1,700 Single-deck bus (60 seat) 17,500 16 940 Double-deck bus (100 seat) 17,000 16 910 Table 7 suggests that minibuses require a higher level of capital to labour input, though the productivity of the labour is significantly higher (in terms of passenger kms per man employed). As might be expected, the most labour intensive vehicles are the rickshaws. In the authors' opinion it should perhaps be stated that the main objective of public transport ought to be to move people efficiently ( how- ever defined) from origin to destina- tion. The generation of employment and entrepreneurial skill ought to be considered as a secondary objective. At present there is little evidence on the congestion effects that IPT may create. It seems intuitively sens- ible to hypothesise that large num- bers of small vehicles (i.e. 1 PT) will create more congestion than small numbers of large vehicles (i.e. con- ventional public transport). There are many situations in Third World cities, however, where the operating environment is in a chaotic state because of the narrowness of roads and their use by hawkers, pedest- rians, etc; as noted earlier, in these conditions IPT types can be operated more efficiently than conventional public transport. Again, on the question of safety there is little evidence to suggest that IPT is mnore or less safe than conven- tional public transport. Statistical data are often deficient and difficult to interpret for comparative pur- poses. What is probable, however, is that the fatality rate associated with the occupants of vehicles involved in an accident is likely to be higher for many of the IPT types as compared to conventional public transport. The flimsy construction of IPT vehicles, particularly rickshaws, gives passen- gers little protection in the event of an accident. Further, the speed diffe- rentials between IPT types (again, rickshaws in particular) and conven- tional public transport are likely to create potential conflict situations. The impairment of health as a result of riding or pulling a rickshaw has also been put forward as a reason for abandoning this form of public transport. While there is no hard evidence to suggest how health is impaired, funds have been made available by various org anisations to try to improve cycle rickshaw design in order to reduce the drivers' efforts. In Britain Oxfam have sponsored the development of Oxtrike1,') while in India various attempts have been made to fit a small motor to the rickshaw. The latest attempt is being undertaken by the Automotive Research Association of India and involves building a purpose-built powered cycle rickshaw (Figure 3). CONCLUSIONS Public transport in Third World cities consists of a variety of vehicle types engaged in the two basic roles of stage-carriage bus service and taxi service. (A few, but not many, cities also have an important suburban rail component.) These vehicle types have been classified as either con- ventional or IPT. The IPT taxi services are not common outside south-east Asia. In general, hqwever, IPT is an important component of public transport.Public transport is a growth indus- try and this is undoubtedly con- nected with general urban develop- ment in the Third World. The crea- tion of minibus systems in addition to conventional public transport is a feature of this growth. The more traditional IPT types like cycle rick- shaws and horse-drawn carts are now only significant in some of the less prosperous or less well- developed cities. The development of IPT systems has generated some controversy over the use of small or large vehicles, the encouragement of small or large enterprises and whether the public transport sector should be privately operated or nationalised. Resolving the argu- ments is not an easy task because technical merits of a particular sys- tem may be masked by institutional- ised constraints. In general, small vehicles are likely to be more expen- sive to operate (per seat kin) than Figure 3. A prototype powered cycle rickshaw in Pune, India. THE HIGHWAY ENGINEER MRH18MARCH 1982 4. .' 4 large vehicles (assuming the same operator were to be running the two types). But returns on the smaller vehicle may be higher because of higher load factors and fares (per passenger kin). A small enterprise is likely to be able to operate a given vehicle type more cheaply than a large enterprise. This is less likely to be because there are any economies of scale, but because labour produc- tivity is higher in the small enter- prise, for institutional rather than technical reasons. The small enter- prise is less subject to labour laws and union pressures, which affect manning levels, working hours and wage rates. (in many cases the small enterprise is the self-employed man, who dictates his own conditions of employment.) Lastly, the national- ised industry is likely to incur higher costs in operating a given number of vehicles, than a private concern. But the nationalised concern is likely to be under much greater pressure to provide high service levels, at artifi- cially low fares. The losses inevitably incurred are made good either by some form of subsidy (which is inclined to encourage waste and lower productivity) or through the deterioration in the fleet through lack of investment and the consequent effects on vehicle output. More research is needed to elab- orate further on some of these topics and also on some of the other exter- nal issues influencing public trans- port development potential, like employment generation, congestion, fuel economy, safety, health, and the relationship with city development. IPT must have a continuing task to perform in urban transport alongside conventional public transport. The markets for the two types must be clearly identified and the systems encouraged to develop to meet the demands of these markets. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe work described in this Paper forms part of the programme of the Overseas Unit of the TRRIL and the Paper is published by permission of the Director. REFERENCES(1) Davis, K. World Urbanisation, 1950-1970. Institute of Interna- tional Studies, University of California, Population Mono- graph Series Nos 4 and 9, 1969, 1972. (2) Breese, G. Urbanisation in Newly Developing Countries. Prentice Hall U.S. 1966. (3) Jacobs, G. D. and Fouracre P. R. Intermediate Forms of Urban Public Transport in Developing Countries. Traffic Engineering and Control 17 (3) March 1976. (4) Report of the International Col- laborative Study of The Factors Affecting Public Transport Pat- ronage. The Demand for Public Transport. (Transport and Road Research Laboratory) 1980. (5) White, P. R. Bus Operation in Developing Countries under Dif- ferent Economic Conditions. PTRC Summer Annual Meeting. University of Warwick, July 1980. (6) Bly, P. H., Webster F. V. and Susan Pounds. Subsidisation of Urban Public Transport. Depart- ment of the Environment Department of Transport, TFRRL Report SR 541. Crowthorne, 1980. (Transport and Road Research Laboratory.) (7) Walters, A. A. Costs and Scale of Bus Services. World Bank Staff Working Paper No 325. Washington DC, April 1979. (8) Jacobs, G. D., Maunder D. A. C. and Fouracre, P. R. Transport Problems of the Urban Poor in Developing Countries. World Conference on Transport Research. London, April 1980. (9) Tulpule, A. H. Characteristics of Households With and Without Cars in 1970. Department of the Environment. TIRRIL Report SIR 64 UC. Crowthorne, 1974. (Transport and Road Research Laboratory). (10) Department of Employment. Family Expenditure Survey 1970 and 1971. H.M.S.O. London, 1971 and 1972. (11) Fouracre, P. R and Maunder D. A. C. A Review of Intermediate Public Transport in Third World cities. Paper presented at PTRIC Summer Annual Meeting. Uni- versity of Warwick, July 1979 (PTIRC). (1 2) Case, D. J. and Latchford J. C. R. A Comparison of Public Trans- port in Cities in S.E. Asia. Department of the Environment of Transport, TRRL Report SR 659, Crowthorne, 1981. (Trans- port and Road Research Laboratory). (13) Wilson, S. S. The Oxtrike. Appropriate Technology Vol. 3, No. 4. Crown Copyright 1982. The work described in this report forms part of the programme carried out for the Overseas Development Administra- tion, but any views expressed are not necessarily those of the Administra- tion. MARCH 1982 ~~~~~THE JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTION OF HIGHWAY ENGINEERS GUIDELINES FOR LORRY MANAGEMENT SCHEMES - ASSESSMENT - PROCEDURES - IMPLEMENTATION The Institution has produced a major new publication Guidelines for "Lorry Management Schemes - Assessment - Procedures - Implemention." which sets out the three stages leading to the introduction of a lorry management scheme. The publication will be of very great practical value to all those concerned with lorries. The book costs £6.50 and can be obtained by completing and returning the form below: The Secretary, The Institution of Highway Engineers, 3 Lygon Place, Ebury Street, London SW1 Please send me .......... copy(ies) of `GUIDELINES". My cheque/PO for £..........is enclosed. (Please use block capitals) N A M E.... ... ... ...... ... .... ..... .... .... .. .. ... ... .... ... .... .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. A D D SRE SS......................................................................... MARCH 1982